A little bit of control returned to my betting today, not without a scare though. I laid Nadal to win 3-2 and he dropped the first set. I quite like set betting on tennis and I thought 11.5 was a good price as I dont expect anyone, apart from Fed, to take 2 sets from Nadal. My current strategy, which changes daily is to attempt to increase my bank by 5% each trade. My balance this morning was £537 so I rounded up to £600 and set a notional target of £30 (5% of £600). I'll see how it goes.
I've fielded quite afew comments from readers of this blog and from forumites that I am playing loose at the moment, and you're right. My plan is that once I hit the magical £1000 target (if!) then I will adopt a more focussed, strategic and cautious approach but for now...
My initial deposit of £100 on June the 1st is, as I write, just over £600 so I've had value for that initial investment, I'm still going and I'm still ahead of target despite my awful run.
Anyway, back to today....I got home from work and my missus was watching the tennis so I sought a trade, couldnt find one but did manage to snaffle up £7 of free money hanging around on the lay side of the televised tennis match.
I added a further £30 this evening laying Russia HT/FT so a better, more disciplined day and my balance is heading upwards again.
Thanks to all those that have taken the time to leave comments on here - please keep them coming - its nice to know that the 10-15 minutes I dedicate to my blog each evening (under the guise that I'm working) is appreciated by a few like-minded souls.
Good luck with your own challenges, please let me know how you're doing...
Night all.
Thursday 26 June 2008
Wednesday 25 June 2008
Shocker
Well I have had a crazy few days on all fronts, so much so I havent found the time to update my blog, apologies.
I've completely lost it. I lost £100 on the horses last night and then compounded losses with a lay of Essex in the Twenty20 and placed an order to lock in a guaranteed profit that failed to get matched by 0.01 and had I not been cooking my tea I would have matched manually and saved myself from a £96.50 loss. All in all though a bad night and I went to bed last night with a balance of £550. But things got worse...
I could not understand the price on Eng to bt NZ, I expected <1.5 and thought 1.63 was a steel so loaded £250 on Eng. I attended a job interview and had to drive a few hours to get there so listened to Englands inept display on the way there and on the way back. I managed to cut out of my position to limit my loss to £112.
On arrival home I fielded a call from the interviewer to tell me I'd got the job but my thoughts centred on my lay of Turkey to qualify for the final at 5.4 for my entire bank. If Turkey qualified I'd be writing this with £2 in my account but thanks to Lahms late, undeserved winner my balance is £537.10 and I have alot of work to do to restore parity.
I've really let myself down this week and I am very pissed off with myself.
My take on the cricket run-out incident is that when Collingwood was offered the choice to send the NZ bat back to the pavillion he should have said no. Had he won as a result it would have been a hollow victory and his conduct today will last longer than any legacy he will leave as Eng captain. IMO anyway!
I've completely lost it. I lost £100 on the horses last night and then compounded losses with a lay of Essex in the Twenty20 and placed an order to lock in a guaranteed profit that failed to get matched by 0.01 and had I not been cooking my tea I would have matched manually and saved myself from a £96.50 loss. All in all though a bad night and I went to bed last night with a balance of £550. But things got worse...
I could not understand the price on Eng to bt NZ, I expected <1.5 and thought 1.63 was a steel so loaded £250 on Eng. I attended a job interview and had to drive a few hours to get there so listened to Englands inept display on the way there and on the way back. I managed to cut out of my position to limit my loss to £112.
On arrival home I fielded a call from the interviewer to tell me I'd got the job but my thoughts centred on my lay of Turkey to qualify for the final at 5.4 for my entire bank. If Turkey qualified I'd be writing this with £2 in my account but thanks to Lahms late, undeserved winner my balance is £537.10 and I have alot of work to do to restore parity.
I've really let myself down this week and I am very pissed off with myself.
My take on the cricket run-out incident is that when Collingwood was offered the choice to send the NZ bat back to the pavillion he should have said no. Had he won as a result it would have been a hollow victory and his conduct today will last longer than any legacy he will leave as Eng captain. IMO anyway!
Monday 23 June 2008
Bad to Worse (then a bit better)
Tough day yesterday, not only did I have to endure sunday lunch at the mother-in-laws I also had to follow the progress (capitulation) of Kaymer in the BMW International on the PC in her spare room upstairs under cover that I was 'working'.
Kaymer gave a way a 6 shot lead...then won in a play-off and as I drove home I was breathing a huge sigh of relief and weighing up the evening match between Spain/Italy and talked myself into a lay of the 0-0 @ 9 for a £200 liability. I then watched 90 minutes of painful football and no goals!
Into extra time and still steaming I backed no next goal for 1.82 but I was still down >£120 on the day and my balance now £622.53.
So pissed off with last nights lay that I couldnt even bring myself to update this blog so apologies regular readers.
I was somewhat disconsolate when I updated my progress/regress on the Betfair forum last night and I'd like to thank those that have offered genuinely decent advice to slow down before I blow my hard earned bank chasing weekend losses.
Got home from work this evening and my missus was at her mums and I had a free evening to watch the cricket and racing on Sky. With so many opportunities on offer I couldnt resist 2 bets - and they both won:
£50 on Dazzling Dust to be placed @ 1.93 (I expected 1.6)
£20 lay of 3m 2f chaser Yes Sir @ 15 in a 1m 4f mdn at Chepstow (drifted to 30)
So, I've won £63.24 this evening and my balance has taken a well needed boost to £685.77.
Perhaps, more significantly I resisted the temptation to back handicap 'good thing' Spin at Windsor. I've said for a while i wont be getting involved in handicaps and for once, i stuck to my guns. I really do feel that non-handicaps are the way forward and I particularly like the shape of backing horses to be placed in races of 8-12 runners featuring strong favs. Dazzling Dust was 10-11 to be placed with the front 3 in the betting clear and 23 bar, that's the kinds of bets I'm going to be sniffing out in the future not backing short priced favs in handicaps.
Anyway, a little pride restored. The clatter of the front door tells me my missus is on her way upstairs so best switch the channel from ATR and sign off.
Thanks for reading, night all.
Kaymer gave a way a 6 shot lead...then won in a play-off and as I drove home I was breathing a huge sigh of relief and weighing up the evening match between Spain/Italy and talked myself into a lay of the 0-0 @ 9 for a £200 liability. I then watched 90 minutes of painful football and no goals!
Into extra time and still steaming I backed no next goal for 1.82 but I was still down >£120 on the day and my balance now £622.53.
So pissed off with last nights lay that I couldnt even bring myself to update this blog so apologies regular readers.
I was somewhat disconsolate when I updated my progress/regress on the Betfair forum last night and I'd like to thank those that have offered genuinely decent advice to slow down before I blow my hard earned bank chasing weekend losses.
Got home from work this evening and my missus was at her mums and I had a free evening to watch the cricket and racing on Sky. With so many opportunities on offer I couldnt resist 2 bets - and they both won:
£50 on Dazzling Dust to be placed @ 1.93 (I expected 1.6)
£20 lay of 3m 2f chaser Yes Sir @ 15 in a 1m 4f mdn at Chepstow (drifted to 30)
So, I've won £63.24 this evening and my balance has taken a well needed boost to £685.77.
Perhaps, more significantly I resisted the temptation to back handicap 'good thing' Spin at Windsor. I've said for a while i wont be getting involved in handicaps and for once, i stuck to my guns. I really do feel that non-handicaps are the way forward and I particularly like the shape of backing horses to be placed in races of 8-12 runners featuring strong favs. Dazzling Dust was 10-11 to be placed with the front 3 in the betting clear and 23 bar, that's the kinds of bets I'm going to be sniffing out in the future not backing short priced favs in handicaps.
Anyway, a little pride restored. The clatter of the front door tells me my missus is on her way upstairs so best switch the channel from ATR and sign off.
Thanks for reading, night all.
Saturday 21 June 2008
Losing it
As I write I have £50 on Holland to qualify @ 1.64 following their late equaliser - they looked the better side towards the end of the 2nd half, deserved the equaliser and I expected them to be <1.5. Anyway the result will determine whether I finish the day up or down.
I've lost control today, rather than bore you with my bets let's just say I've lost the patience and discipline that has got my bank >£800. My lowlights today are cutting out of winning positions on rugby and cricket - signs that my confidence is waiving. Had I let both bets run I would have won, but ended up losing on both.
Worst bet of the day has to be £50 on Meydan City, unraced in a maiden at Newmarket backed purely because of his price tag $11.5m. Yes $11.5m and guess what he lost. To back an unraced 2yo at odds on is madness and I deserved to lose. Idiot.
My 2 fancies of the day both drifted to twice their morning price (Muftarres at Redcar and Fithofforth at Lingfield), naturally I backed them at the low price and both won easily.
I ploughed over a ton on Tunisia to bt Burundi as I'd never heard of Burundi, I thought it was a fish, and Tunisia are a decent outfit under Roger Lemerre. They won, but only just, at 1.17.
As I write Russia seem to be dictating play and look the stronger side and if they win I will be about £25 down on the day to compound yesterday's late losses.
Another piss poor day, I could really do with a touch of Dutch magic...win or lose though I will still be >£700 and still on schedule but I'm struggling big style and feel as though I'm in danger of blowing the good work I've done to date.
For any fellow challenge followers Kaymer wont relinquish a 6 shot lead tomorrow and is available to back at 1.2.
Fuck it, Russia just scored.
I've lost control today, rather than bore you with my bets let's just say I've lost the patience and discipline that has got my bank >£800. My lowlights today are cutting out of winning positions on rugby and cricket - signs that my confidence is waiving. Had I let both bets run I would have won, but ended up losing on both.
Worst bet of the day has to be £50 on Meydan City, unraced in a maiden at Newmarket backed purely because of his price tag $11.5m. Yes $11.5m and guess what he lost. To back an unraced 2yo at odds on is madness and I deserved to lose. Idiot.
My 2 fancies of the day both drifted to twice their morning price (Muftarres at Redcar and Fithofforth at Lingfield), naturally I backed them at the low price and both won easily.
I ploughed over a ton on Tunisia to bt Burundi as I'd never heard of Burundi, I thought it was a fish, and Tunisia are a decent outfit under Roger Lemerre. They won, but only just, at 1.17.
As I write Russia seem to be dictating play and look the stronger side and if they win I will be about £25 down on the day to compound yesterday's late losses.
Another piss poor day, I could really do with a touch of Dutch magic...win or lose though I will still be >£700 and still on schedule but I'm struggling big style and feel as though I'm in danger of blowing the good work I've done to date.
For any fellow challenge followers Kaymer wont relinquish a 6 shot lead tomorrow and is available to back at 1.2.
Fuck it, Russia just scored.
Friday 20 June 2008
1.01 gubbed
Weird day. Conduit was placed and I had £50 @ 1.88 to place. I followed that up with £25 on Yorks to bt Lancs in the latter stages of the Twenty20 @ 1.85. So, a good day and my balance up to £839.30. Then...
I really fancied Croatia tonight and laid Turkey @ 5.1 to win £25. At half time with the game still goaless I bailed out and put £25 on Croatia to win instead. Yes, I lost out on a profit and took a £25 loss but I was happy with my thought process as at 0-0 with 45 mins to go anything can happen and I feel as though I did the right thing. Furthermore, I can just about accept my decision to back Croatia because they were much the better side and I fancied them to win and to have a £25 liability instead of a £100 going into the 2nd half I felt comfortable.
Then, at full time I backed Croatia again £50 @ 1.58. So, as I write I am down on the day (about £13) when I should be about £100 up and I am feeling pretty pissed off right now. I'm not going to blame Turkey's equaliser with the last kick of the match (I was updating my blog at they scored), that's the way it goes but I cant accept my poor discipline this evening.
I must exercise caution tomorrow as it is so tempting to chase today's losses which is the undoing of so many failed bettors (myself included).
Big test ahead.
My balance this evening after 43 bets is £764.30.
I really fancied Croatia tonight and laid Turkey @ 5.1 to win £25. At half time with the game still goaless I bailed out and put £25 on Croatia to win instead. Yes, I lost out on a profit and took a £25 loss but I was happy with my thought process as at 0-0 with 45 mins to go anything can happen and I feel as though I did the right thing. Furthermore, I can just about accept my decision to back Croatia because they were much the better side and I fancied them to win and to have a £25 liability instead of a £100 going into the 2nd half I felt comfortable.
Then, at full time I backed Croatia again £50 @ 1.58. So, as I write I am down on the day (about £13) when I should be about £100 up and I am feeling pretty pissed off right now. I'm not going to blame Turkey's equaliser with the last kick of the match (I was updating my blog at they scored), that's the way it goes but I cant accept my poor discipline this evening.
I must exercise caution tomorrow as it is so tempting to chase today's losses which is the undoing of so many failed bettors (myself included).
Big test ahead.
My balance this evening after 43 bets is £764.30.
Thursday 19 June 2008
Better day
Balance £684.06
I am now operating with a notional bank of £184.06 as I have transferred £500 to my Aussie wallet. Basically, that means my maximum liability will be £184.06 and not £684.06. I've set my next target at £1,000 when I may consider banking a further £500 - if I get there..
After blogging last night I laid Bahamas to bt Jamaica @ 11.5. The reggae boyz beat Bahamas 7-0 at the weekend in Jamaica and the return leg was also being played in Jamaica and whoever laid my £16.64 must be mad - Jamaica ran out easy 6-0 winners and it should have been 16 by all accounts.
One bet at Ascot today, Geordieland to be placed £25 @ 2.58, another £37.56 and I topped that up further this evening with a £50 back of Somerset @ 1.32 when in control against Worcester and then I lay of Portugal at half time (when 2-1 behind) @ 5.8 to win £23.77.
All in all a good day and my balance this evening is £777.25. After 39 bets my schedule tells me I should be at £302 so I am way ahead of schedule and feeling confident.
This challenge is definately teaching me a lesson in patience and discipline. Normally I do not operate any kind of plan but now I have a target and a schedule and if I continue to progress as I have been then why cant I get to 100k? I am at stage 72 of my 244 bet plan - more than 25% of the way there in terms of number of bets but less than 1% in terms of cash.
I'm feeling good about things tonight and I've just seen Conduit runs at Ascot tomorrow which makes me feel even better. Conduit ran an amazing race, albeit in less exalted company, last time out and he could be a cut above these. He's available to be placed as i write at 1.9 ish. Get on.
I am now operating with a notional bank of £184.06 as I have transferred £500 to my Aussie wallet. Basically, that means my maximum liability will be £184.06 and not £684.06. I've set my next target at £1,000 when I may consider banking a further £500 - if I get there..
After blogging last night I laid Bahamas to bt Jamaica @ 11.5. The reggae boyz beat Bahamas 7-0 at the weekend in Jamaica and the return leg was also being played in Jamaica and whoever laid my £16.64 must be mad - Jamaica ran out easy 6-0 winners and it should have been 16 by all accounts.
One bet at Ascot today, Geordieland to be placed £25 @ 2.58, another £37.56 and I topped that up further this evening with a £50 back of Somerset @ 1.32 when in control against Worcester and then I lay of Portugal at half time (when 2-1 behind) @ 5.8 to win £23.77.
All in all a good day and my balance this evening is £777.25. After 39 bets my schedule tells me I should be at £302 so I am way ahead of schedule and feeling confident.
This challenge is definately teaching me a lesson in patience and discipline. Normally I do not operate any kind of plan but now I have a target and a schedule and if I continue to progress as I have been then why cant I get to 100k? I am at stage 72 of my 244 bet plan - more than 25% of the way there in terms of number of bets but less than 1% in terms of cash.
I'm feeling good about things tonight and I've just seen Conduit runs at Ascot tomorrow which makes me feel even better. Conduit ran an amazing race, albeit in less exalted company, last time out and he could be a cut above these. He's available to be placed as i write at 1.9 ish. Get on.
Wednesday 18 June 2008
Twat
As blogged last night I fancied End to bt NZ and loaded £100 on at 1.54 early doors, sensibly I laid back when it was clear the match was going to be shortened so I was patting myself on the back when I watched Eng struggle to a modest 162 from their 26 overs. Infact, mid way through England's innings I thought NZ looked a great price in running at 1.5 and promptly backed NZ. Now, with NZ in a win position and with 8 wickets in hand the umpires call the game off! Ridiculous.
To be honest it's not been my day. Caught up in the Bankable hype and fervour I backed him £25 at just shy 2-1. I backed a horse in a 30 runner handicap and less than 2-1. I have absolutely no excuse other than the old me surfaced earlier today. The Bankable bet just about encapsulates everything bad about my betting over the past 20 years and it was an idiotic bet. Note to oneself this evening, dont be such a twat in future.
Readers of this blog will know I've been considering siphoning off some of my bank and after much deliberation I have taken the advice of a poster on the Betfair forum today. I've transferred £500 to my Betfair Australian wallet so I am now playing with the excess, about £168. I am still ahead on the 244 bets to 100k challenge so I guess I have time to keep changing my strategy as long as I stay on track.
As I speak that £168 is about to increase by £16 or so 'cause I laid Sweden @ 11.5 after going 1-0 down v Russia. Russia looked very good tonight and will give Holland a game I reckon.
It's been an odd day but despite today's highs/lows I've only taken a step back of about £9 so although my 33 bet winning sequence has been broken I am still on track and live to fight another day.
To be honest it's not been my day. Caught up in the Bankable hype and fervour I backed him £25 at just shy 2-1. I backed a horse in a 30 runner handicap and less than 2-1. I have absolutely no excuse other than the old me surfaced earlier today. The Bankable bet just about encapsulates everything bad about my betting over the past 20 years and it was an idiotic bet. Note to oneself this evening, dont be such a twat in future.
Readers of this blog will know I've been considering siphoning off some of my bank and after much deliberation I have taken the advice of a poster on the Betfair forum today. I've transferred £500 to my Betfair Australian wallet so I am now playing with the excess, about £168. I am still ahead on the 244 bets to 100k challenge so I guess I have time to keep changing my strategy as long as I stay on track.
As I speak that £168 is about to increase by £16 or so 'cause I laid Sweden @ 11.5 after going 1-0 down v Russia. Russia looked very good tonight and will give Holland a game I reckon.
It's been an odd day but despite today's highs/lows I've only taken a step back of about £9 so although my 33 bet winning sequence has been broken I am still on track and live to fight another day.
Tuesday 17 June 2008
Is it time to bank?
Bad day today, work's tough at the moment.
Just the one bet, £50 on Henrythenavigator @ 1.6 taking my balance to £693.85. Now 33 successful bets and I am getting a bit edgey. For example, I really fancied Italy this evening and 1-0 up against 10 men they were available to back at 1.23 after 60 mins and France were available to lay at 23. Because my balance has swelled I am very cautious and missed an opportunity this evening. I think that had I been playing with a bank of <£500 then I'd have got stuck into a lay of France and perhaps the time is right to bank £500 and use the surplus to build again. I'm still ahead of schedule so why not? I'll sleep on it.
Night all.
Just the one bet, £50 on Henrythenavigator @ 1.6 taking my balance to £693.85. Now 33 successful bets and I am getting a bit edgey. For example, I really fancied Italy this evening and 1-0 up against 10 men they were available to back at 1.23 after 60 mins and France were available to lay at 23. Because my balance has swelled I am very cautious and missed an opportunity this evening. I think that had I been playing with a bank of <£500 then I'd have got stuck into a lay of France and perhaps the time is right to bank £500 and use the surplus to build again. I'm still ahead of schedule so why not? I'll sleep on it.
Night all.
Monday 16 June 2008
Tiger's feat
Tiger dug me out of a small hole this evening having backed him entering the final round (£50 @ 1.71) and again this morning (£100 @ 1.35). In the europhia that follows a winning bet, particularly in such nail biting circumstances, I am prone to hyperbole but Tiger is surely the most tenacious, determined and controlled sportsman for decades. He continually exceed everyone's expectations and having limped round 5 rounds at Torrey Pines he still summoned the guts edge out Mediate this evening. Honestly, Tiger Woods is quite simply an amazing sportsman, perhaps the best ever.
I'm still waiting for my US Open bets to be settled but I have added approx £65 to the balance and bolstered it further with a lay of Austria to bt Germany @ 9.8 to win £23.77.
I estimate my provisional balance will be £660ish and I have now landed 32/32.
Royal Ascot starts tomorrow and there are so many horses I fancy and in normal circumstances I'd be spraying bets around all over the place but this challenge is all about waiting for the right opportunities, being patient and being controlled at all times and to that end the only horse I will be backing tomorrow will be Henry The Navigator. He bolted up ahead of the Derby winner lto and travelled and quickened like a very, very good horse. Suited by the prevailing fast ground and with nothing to worry about in opposition I'll be having a small back at around 1.66.
Thanks to those of you that have added comments on here or on the Betfair forum, please keep them coming.
I'm still waiting for my US Open bets to be settled but I have added approx £65 to the balance and bolstered it further with a lay of Austria to bt Germany @ 9.8 to win £23.77.
I estimate my provisional balance will be £660ish and I have now landed 32/32.
Royal Ascot starts tomorrow and there are so many horses I fancy and in normal circumstances I'd be spraying bets around all over the place but this challenge is all about waiting for the right opportunities, being patient and being controlled at all times and to that end the only horse I will be backing tomorrow will be Henry The Navigator. He bolted up ahead of the Derby winner lto and travelled and quickened like a very, very good horse. Suited by the prevailing fast ground and with nothing to worry about in opposition I'll be having a small back at around 1.66.
Thanks to those of you that have added comments on here or on the Betfair forum, please keep them coming.
Sunday 15 June 2008
Bottle
Couldnt believe the odds on offer about an England victory v NZ today. NZ were 2nd best in the test match series, got smacked up in the Twenty20 and were missing Oram, their key one day performer. I expected England to be <1.5 and snapped up £100 worth of 1.55. When McCullum was out I ploughed in again, £200 @ 1.1. I considered this a better opportunity than trying to find a 10% return in this evening's football where I just couldnt find any edge. I'm counting this as 2 bets as the first was struck before the start and the other in running. Either way they contributed a combined sum of £70 towards my balance.
I am thankful to Lance from the Betfair forum for tipping up a lay of Federer's opponent to beat the unbeatable Swiss ace 2-0 @ 21 - another £18.07. Thanks Lance if you ever read this! For me that was just such a great bet and the result was never in doubt but my liability was restricted as funds were tied up on the cricket.
All in all a good day though and after 29 succesful bets my balance now stands at £574.49.
That said I've just helped myself £50 Tiger to win the US Open at 1.71. When he's lead in majors going into the final day he's not lost and I cant see him being headed tonight either. Prior to this challenge I would have lumped on heavier but I dont need to. If he wins I will increase by balance by more than 3% so why take the risk in undoing the good work I have put in over the past 2 weeks.
£500 was my first target and I am losing a bit of bottle to be honest, I am not comfortable with my liability being bigger than £500 so I need to hatch some kind of strategy sharpish. Any help/advice greatly appreciated.
I am thankful to Lance from the Betfair forum for tipping up a lay of Federer's opponent to beat the unbeatable Swiss ace 2-0 @ 21 - another £18.07. Thanks Lance if you ever read this! For me that was just such a great bet and the result was never in doubt but my liability was restricted as funds were tied up on the cricket.
All in all a good day though and after 29 succesful bets my balance now stands at £574.49.
That said I've just helped myself £50 Tiger to win the US Open at 1.71. When he's lead in majors going into the final day he's not lost and I cant see him being headed tonight either. Prior to this challenge I would have lumped on heavier but I dont need to. If he wins I will increase by balance by more than 3% so why take the risk in undoing the good work I have put in over the past 2 weeks.
£500 was my first target and I am losing a bit of bottle to be honest, I am not comfortable with my liability being bigger than £500 so I need to hatch some kind of strategy sharpish. Any help/advice greatly appreciated.
Two Rats
Went to York races for my mates stag do yesterday. Got the train from Harrogate and sat next to this incredibly fat woman with a huge baloon face wearing an amply named Fat Face branded sweatshirt, how ironic.
Anyway, my friend dressed as a giant rat was upstaged by another stag dressed in the same costume - can you believe it! We couldnt.
I managed to rip through £100 notes and didnt find a winner all day but the challenge fund is still going strong with a lay of Sweden to bt Spain HT/FT @ 15. In hindsight, this was a bad bet. 14-1 about Sweden to win at HT/FT was too big and when I placed the bet by phone I was perhaps under the influence of booze and over optimism. I won but I laid a 14-1 shot that should really have been <10-1. If I continue to operate with such ill discipline then disaster awaits.
My balance is now £485.19, I've been increasing my bank, on average, at 6.3% per bet whereas the schedule was 3% per day. I have been quite wreckless but remain unscathed, perhaps more by luck than judgement. Nearing the £500 mark I am also beginning to consider if I should bank an amount, like they do on 'The Weakest Link'. Maybe I should only ever have a maximum liability of £500 and bank any surplus over £500. According to my schedule, after 26 successful bets, my balance should be £209 so even if I banked £250+ now I'd still be on schedule. Clearly I wont acheive the 100k target if I keep doing this but it would make me more comfortable. I feel that if my liability is >£500 then my judgement becomes affected - a bit like Russian roulette. Not sure what to do but for now I just need to concentrate on achieving the £500 barrier.
Anyway, my friend dressed as a giant rat was upstaged by another stag dressed in the same costume - can you believe it! We couldnt.
I managed to rip through £100 notes and didnt find a winner all day but the challenge fund is still going strong with a lay of Sweden to bt Spain HT/FT @ 15. In hindsight, this was a bad bet. 14-1 about Sweden to win at HT/FT was too big and when I placed the bet by phone I was perhaps under the influence of booze and over optimism. I won but I laid a 14-1 shot that should really have been <10-1. If I continue to operate with such ill discipline then disaster awaits.
My balance is now £485.19, I've been increasing my bank, on average, at 6.3% per bet whereas the schedule was 3% per day. I have been quite wreckless but remain unscathed, perhaps more by luck than judgement. Nearing the £500 mark I am also beginning to consider if I should bank an amount, like they do on 'The Weakest Link'. Maybe I should only ever have a maximum liability of £500 and bank any surplus over £500. According to my schedule, after 26 successful bets, my balance should be £209 so even if I banked £250+ now I'd still be on schedule. Clearly I wont acheive the 100k target if I keep doing this but it would make me more comfortable. I feel that if my liability is >£500 then my judgement becomes affected - a bit like Russian roulette. Not sure what to do but for now I just need to concentrate on achieving the £500 barrier.
Friday 13 June 2008
Andy Murray = miserable ginger prick
I laid Murray to bt Roddick 2-0 before he pulled out, what a miserable, ginger prick that fella is. Anyway, after a day of missed opportunities yesterday I fired into a 0-0 lay of Italy v Romania. I actually think Italy look dynamite going forward and expected a much more open game today. I listened to a goal-less first half in my car as I was stuck on the M62 for an hour on the way home from work. There must have been 20+ efforts on goal in the first 45 so was relieved when Romania eventually broke the deadlock shortly after the break and having risked my entire bank @ 9.4 I bumped my balance up to £424.26.
As I write I've just risked my entire bank again backed Woods to make the cut, although only £224 has been matched so far. From my reckoning he has to shoot +6 or better today to qualify for the weekend I have this is a 1.04 chance in my book not the 1.09 I just helped myself to.
As is well documented the exchanges afford backers a huge edge; the likelyhood is that a back of a 1.03 shot is likely to offer better value than a lay of a 34.0 shot. Something to mull over for sure.
Off to a stag do at York races tomorrow, got disaster written all over it from a punting perspective. Hope I'm not crying into my beer this time tomorrow night.
As I write I've just risked my entire bank again backed Woods to make the cut, although only £224 has been matched so far. From my reckoning he has to shoot +6 or better today to qualify for the weekend I have this is a 1.04 chance in my book not the 1.09 I just helped myself to.
As is well documented the exchanges afford backers a huge edge; the likelyhood is that a back of a 1.03 shot is likely to offer better value than a lay of a 34.0 shot. Something to mull over for sure.
Off to a stag do at York races tomorrow, got disaster written all over it from a punting perspective. Hope I'm not crying into my beer this time tomorrow night.
Thursday 12 June 2008
Steaming
No progress today but consider myself unfortunate and its at times like these that I could, in poker parlance, start steaming. You see I put an order down last night to back Karlsson to make the cut in the US Open, just a small back £50 @ 1.8 and assumed it would get matched. On arriving home I flicked on Sky to see Karlsson out in front and then logged into Betfair to see my bet hadnt got matched. Spent the whole evening scratching around for a bet and delierated about backing Worcester to bt Glos in the Twenty20, Hick was in and looking on fire. Considered a bank job back at 1.15 and put an order down accordingly, market shortened, my order didnt get matched and Hick hit an unbeaten 70-odd and Worcester cantered to victory with the loss of 1 wicket - bollocks. Then, to round off a rather frustrating evening I backed Poland on the Asian (0) market at 1.26 (Poland win I win £26, Poland draw I win/lose zero, Poland lose I lose £100). Poland conceded a penalty in the 93rd minute which Austria converted and bang went any chance of a profitable day.
I didnt lose though. Balance is still £381.47 but pissed off tonight.
Reading the Betfair forum thread today I see a few people shot their stack so I guess I'm lucky to still be going. Would be good to hear similar hard luck stories to make myself feel better. If anyone can tell me how to upload a spreadsheet so that I can detail my results to date I'd be grateful.
I didnt lose though. Balance is still £381.47 but pissed off tonight.
Reading the Betfair forum thread today I see a few people shot their stack so I guess I'm lucky to still be going. Would be good to hear similar hard luck stories to make myself feel better. If anyone can tell me how to upload a spreadsheet so that I can detail my results to date I'd be grateful.
Wednesday 11 June 2008
I love Twenty20
Balance £357.70
Day off today, so played golf with a mate and got beat...not happy.
Dwelt for ages whether to back Roddick at Queens but seeing as I was unable to watch it and therefore unable to manage my position, if necessary, I didnt get involved. Roddick won but Ginepri took the first set. A chance missed to increase my balance by 19%.
I love Twenty20 and was over the moon to see its return on Sky this evening. I watched Sussex bat and expected Kent to be <1.2 when Sussex were struggling early doors. I backed Kent @ 1.25 for £100. To date I've been risking my entire bank but now I have a decent bank to play with I dont need to do that, I just need to keep increasing my balance by 3% or more per bet. Kent won, but only just - with just 1 ball remaining which was painful to follow as I could only sneak a peak at Kent's run chase during the breaks of Location, Location, Location - my missus just loves that program. Nevertheless, another win and now 23/23.
Day off today, so played golf with a mate and got beat...not happy.
Dwelt for ages whether to back Roddick at Queens but seeing as I was unable to watch it and therefore unable to manage my position, if necessary, I didnt get involved. Roddick won but Ginepri took the first set. A chance missed to increase my balance by 19%.
I love Twenty20 and was over the moon to see its return on Sky this evening. I watched Sussex bat and expected Kent to be <1.2 when Sussex were struggling early doors. I backed Kent @ 1.25 for £100. To date I've been risking my entire bank but now I have a decent bank to play with I dont need to do that, I just need to keep increasing my balance by 3% or more per bet. Kent won, but only just - with just 1 ball remaining which was painful to follow as I could only sneak a peak at Kent's run chase during the breaks of Location, Location, Location - my missus just loves that program. Nevertheless, another win and now 23/23.
Tuesday 10 June 2008
Slow and steady
Balance £332.66
Slow, steady progress today. I fancied Spain today but the pre-match quotes to lay Russia were ridiculous so I left alone. Driving home from work, Spain took the lead so I rang to get a price to lay Russia and snapped up the 24 for my entire bank to win £13.69. In hindsight I should have laid Russia from the start cause, as good as Gus Huddink is, I think Russia are an average side and were lucky to qualify ahead of England, particularly when you consider they played their home matches on an artificial surface.
I laid a rag to get beat at Southwell later in the evening at 30 increasing my bank to £357.70 but I am really nervous laying horses cause most horses, at some point during a race, look like winning and Smokincannon in the 7.30 at Southwell was no exception.
Don't seem to be many opportunities around for the next few days so its a case of protecting the bank for now and cranking it up at the weekend but still well ahead of schedule. My performance v schedule is now 25% complete - another 200 bets increasing the bank by 3% each time will increase my balance to £100k!
Slow, steady progress today. I fancied Spain today but the pre-match quotes to lay Russia were ridiculous so I left alone. Driving home from work, Spain took the lead so I rang to get a price to lay Russia and snapped up the 24 for my entire bank to win £13.69. In hindsight I should have laid Russia from the start cause, as good as Gus Huddink is, I think Russia are an average side and were lucky to qualify ahead of England, particularly when you consider they played their home matches on an artificial surface.
I laid a rag to get beat at Southwell later in the evening at 30 increasing my bank to £357.70 but I am really nervous laying horses cause most horses, at some point during a race, look like winning and Smokincannon in the 7.30 at Southwell was no exception.
Don't seem to be many opportunities around for the next few days so its a case of protecting the bank for now and cranking it up at the weekend but still well ahead of schedule. My performance v schedule is now 25% complete - another 200 bets increasing the bank by 3% each time will increase my balance to £100k!
Monday 9 June 2008
Well ahead of schedule
Back to work nursing the mother of all sunburn on my balding head. Hate having to relay to about a dozen people that I didnt put sun cream on and yes it does hurt.
Scouring the markets there arent loads of opportunities around at the moment but something compelled me to ring Betfair during my lunch hour and risk my entire bank laying Romania to bt France 1-0 @ 12. I fancied France to score but Romania never looked like scoring so the bet was always secure, however a late strike would have really hurt.
I steered clear of the 'any other score' price as it drifted to 33 from 23 and when Holland went 2-0 up I was surprised people were prepared to back the Italians to still win the match at 23 and I lumped on, laying my entire bank. With 19 minutes to go as I write it's still 2-0 Holland so I am confident in saying that I will exit day 9 with 20 successful bets - a 100% strike rate - and a balance in excess of £330. To date my balance has grown >6% per bet whereas the plan was for 3% per bet. According to my schedule I should have been at this stage after 42 bets so if I revert to growing the bank by 3% per bet then I will complete this challenge in 202 days from now. Here's hoping!
Scouring the markets there arent loads of opportunities around at the moment but something compelled me to ring Betfair during my lunch hour and risk my entire bank laying Romania to bt France 1-0 @ 12. I fancied France to score but Romania never looked like scoring so the bet was always secure, however a late strike would have really hurt.
I steered clear of the 'any other score' price as it drifted to 33 from 23 and when Holland went 2-0 up I was surprised people were prepared to back the Italians to still win the match at 23 and I lumped on, laying my entire bank. With 19 minutes to go as I write it's still 2-0 Holland so I am confident in saying that I will exit day 9 with 20 successful bets - a 100% strike rate - and a balance in excess of £330. To date my balance has grown >6% per bet whereas the plan was for 3% per bet. According to my schedule I should have been at this stage after 42 bets so if I revert to growing the bank by 3% per bet then I will complete this challenge in 202 days from now. Here's hoping!
Sunday 8 June 2008
Bridlington
Balance £241.77
Went to Brid' today to visit my girlfriend's cousin who has just had a baby. We're expecting our first child and today I learnt that prams cost £650. Yes, £650!
Anyway, before we went I laid Graeme McDowell to win the Austrian Open for the entire bank @ 14 and on my return I laid Poland to beat Germany @ 8.2. I spent all day considering this bet and looked at a Poland 1-0 lay or a Poland HT/FT lay but in a fit of 'fuck it' I just laid my entire bank on Poland and it never really looked in danger.
So, another good day, I have now landed 18 successful bets and my starting bank of £100 is now £293.69.
I am a bit nervy now. Not necessarily that I may lose my £100 starting bank but the fact that people have started reading this blog and following my progress on the Betfair forum and I feel if I blow out now I will have burst not just my own bubble but those that are striving to land this challenge themselves.
Dont seem that many opportunities in the next day or two and it is at quiet times when the temptation is to go looking for a bet so the beginning of this week will be a big test for me. That said, surely a lay of any other correct score (ie, either side to score 4 goals) in the Holland v Italy @ 22 ish is nailed on. We'll see...
Went to Brid' today to visit my girlfriend's cousin who has just had a baby. We're expecting our first child and today I learnt that prams cost £650. Yes, £650!
Anyway, before we went I laid Graeme McDowell to win the Austrian Open for the entire bank @ 14 and on my return I laid Poland to beat Germany @ 8.2. I spent all day considering this bet and looked at a Poland 1-0 lay or a Poland HT/FT lay but in a fit of 'fuck it' I just laid my entire bank on Poland and it never really looked in danger.
So, another good day, I have now landed 18 successful bets and my starting bank of £100 is now £293.69.
I am a bit nervy now. Not necessarily that I may lose my £100 starting bank but the fact that people have started reading this blog and following my progress on the Betfair forum and I feel if I blow out now I will have burst not just my own bubble but those that are striving to land this challenge themselves.
Dont seem that many opportunities in the next day or two and it is at quiet times when the temptation is to go looking for a bet so the beginning of this week will be a big test for me. That said, surely a lay of any other correct score (ie, either side to score 4 goals) in the Holland v Italy @ 22 ish is nailed on. We'll see...
Saturday 7 June 2008
Temptation
With so many sporting events on saturdays there is a temptation to bet on everything and its hard to resist the temptation to try to accelerate the bank way ahead of schedule. Remember, this challenge is about increasing the bank by 3% 244 times in a row. I had 6 successful bets today but spread across the day so I'm happy to have resisted so many opportunities to bet. On a normal saturday I would have had dozens of bets so this is a positive step change. Furthermore I almost certainly would have laid New Approach - I thought he had so much against him today; questionable attitude, ran 2 weeks ago, trainer wasnt going to run him etc etc but instead I took the option to lay outsider Frozen Fire @ 22.
The day started well, I scoured the cricket markets and couldnt believe someone was prepared to lay a NZ batsman to get 100 @ 1.14 with 4 wickets down and the batsmen in on 11 and 7 - no way would either of them or the tail get a ton, I made it a 1.02 shot and someone was prepared to lay me 1.14! Must have been a rick or an error by the layer cause that price didnt last and the tail didnt even avoid the follow on. This accelerated my balance by 13.3% - my best trade so far.
All in all a good day and now 16/16 and my balance is £241.77. I need to lay another 213 x 33-1 shots to hit target.
Would be good to learn of the progress of others.
The day started well, I scoured the cricket markets and couldnt believe someone was prepared to lay a NZ batsman to get 100 @ 1.14 with 4 wickets down and the batsmen in on 11 and 7 - no way would either of them or the tail get a ton, I made it a 1.02 shot and someone was prepared to lay me 1.14! Must have been a rick or an error by the layer cause that price didnt last and the tail didnt even avoid the follow on. This accelerated my balance by 13.3% - my best trade so far.
All in all a good day and now 16/16 and my balance is £241.77. I need to lay another 213 x 33-1 shots to hit target.
Would be good to learn of the progress of others.
Friday 6 June 2008
Missed opportunity
Bank £185.14
Meant to lay Djorkvic v Nadal today but got stuck in a conference all day and when I had the chance to make the call Nadal had already wrapped up the match 3 zip. The conference included presentations from George Foreman, Elle Macpherson and Bob Geldoff - pretty inspirational stuff...need to transfer that to the 244 bet challenge!
My only lay this evening was a horse in the 8.45 at Doncaster that got withdrew so I've made no progress today but satisfied that i didnt go looking for another bet and I'm through another day unscathed with a healthy bank to attack this weekend.
Meant to lay Djorkvic v Nadal today but got stuck in a conference all day and when I had the chance to make the call Nadal had already wrapped up the match 3 zip. The conference included presentations from George Foreman, Elle Macpherson and Bob Geldoff - pretty inspirational stuff...need to transfer that to the 244 bet challenge!
My only lay this evening was a horse in the 8.45 at Doncaster that got withdrew so I've made no progress today but satisfied that i didnt go looking for another bet and I'm through another day unscathed with a healthy bank to attack this weekend.
Thursday 5 June 2008
Mother-in-law
Balance £172.05
The spector of the mother-in-law coming round for tea hung over me like a cloud all day as I knew she'd quash any chance I had of a few trades this evening. However, I did pile the bank on England to score 200+ runs @ 1.08 earlier which was looking a bit shakey after lunch, thankfully Pieterson dug in and kept me on track.
Now 11/11 - still well ahead of schedule.
I am so tempted to find a few 3-1 shots to lay but I am steeling myself from doing so and will continue to back strong fancies and lay rags. This is not just a challenge for me to grow my bank but the manner in which I do it is equally important. As blogged previously, I am a crap bettor and I really must exercise patience and discipline and not be tempted to cut corners. So far, so good.
Would be good to hear from others undertaking similar challenges.
The spector of the mother-in-law coming round for tea hung over me like a cloud all day as I knew she'd quash any chance I had of a few trades this evening. However, I did pile the bank on England to score 200+ runs @ 1.08 earlier which was looking a bit shakey after lunch, thankfully Pieterson dug in and kept me on track.
Now 11/11 - still well ahead of schedule.
I am so tempted to find a few 3-1 shots to lay but I am steeling myself from doing so and will continue to back strong fancies and lay rags. This is not just a challenge for me to grow my bank but the manner in which I do it is equally important. As blogged previously, I am a crap bettor and I really must exercise patience and discipline and not be tempted to cut corners. So far, so good.
Would be good to hear from others undertaking similar challenges.
Wednesday 4 June 2008
I like Wednesdays
Bank £143.32
I work from home on Wednesdays. I try to get as much done in the mornings so that I can watch a few races in the afternoons and today was no different.
I landed 4 bets today but I really need to give myself a stiff talking to. I blogged earlier in the week that I dont consider handicap races a suitable medium for laying rags seeing as every horse is supposed to have an equal chance of winning. Why, therefore, did I lay rags in 2 handicap races today! I tell you why it's because I have absolutely no discipline and this is an excellent example of my failings as a gambler of the years. Of the 10 bets I've had so far 3 have been in handicaps and they've all been placed at odds of 16, 21 & 27. I'll forgive myself the lay of Lysanders Quest @ 21 as it was in-running and the horse was clearly travelling no where near as well as the first 2 but going forward I will not be betting in handicaps before the race has started.
I almost made a balls of my back of Safina (-2.5) to bt Dementieva in the tennis too. It was on Eurosport, I was taking a quick break from work and my girlfriend was taking a nap (she's pregnant) and I found myself scouring the markets for a suitable trade and ended up fully committed on this game. I wont go into details but it was an impulsive, thoughtless bet and I was lucky to win a measly £7.54.
Despite all this I have now successfully landed 10 bets out of 10 and my Betfair balance this evening is £172.05 - well ahead of schedule. If I can increase my bank by 3% per bet for another 225 bets I'll hit my £100k target.
Good luck to all those that have started or are about to start similar challenges - let me know how you're getting on.
I work from home on Wednesdays. I try to get as much done in the mornings so that I can watch a few races in the afternoons and today was no different.
I landed 4 bets today but I really need to give myself a stiff talking to. I blogged earlier in the week that I dont consider handicap races a suitable medium for laying rags seeing as every horse is supposed to have an equal chance of winning. Why, therefore, did I lay rags in 2 handicap races today! I tell you why it's because I have absolutely no discipline and this is an excellent example of my failings as a gambler of the years. Of the 10 bets I've had so far 3 have been in handicaps and they've all been placed at odds of 16, 21 & 27. I'll forgive myself the lay of Lysanders Quest @ 21 as it was in-running and the horse was clearly travelling no where near as well as the first 2 but going forward I will not be betting in handicaps before the race has started.
I almost made a balls of my back of Safina (-2.5) to bt Dementieva in the tennis too. It was on Eurosport, I was taking a quick break from work and my girlfriend was taking a nap (she's pregnant) and I found myself scouring the markets for a suitable trade and ended up fully committed on this game. I wont go into details but it was an impulsive, thoughtless bet and I was lucky to win a measly £7.54.
Despite all this I have now successfully landed 10 bets out of 10 and my Betfair balance this evening is £172.05 - well ahead of schedule. If I can increase my bank by 3% per bet for another 225 bets I'll hit my £100k target.
Good luck to all those that have started or are about to start similar challenges - let me know how you're getting on.
Tuesday 3 June 2008
Easy!
Following yesterday's fraught lays (2 runners-up at aggregate odds of 50.0) I've had a relatively nerveless day today, as I write I've just layed my entire bank on Aus to bt WI in the 2nd test @ 16 so things could change.
I cant access Betfair at work so I rang to get a price on Nadal to win his QF in the French Open. This fella is unbeatable at Roland Garros and expecting a quote of 1.03/4, I helped myself to 1.07 for my whole bank. Nadal dropped 3 games and my bank grew by 6.6% (remember target is 3% per bet) to £127.42.
Returning home from work (I've had another crap day), my missus and her sister, fresh from a break in Spain, were cooking my tea but I managed to sneak a small lay of Desert Stag in a 4 runner novice hurdle at Sedgefield @ 16.5 - another £7.56 for the kitty but in hindsight this was a bad call and I'll be avoiding small fields in future as the outsider won at 40-1 and reading Choristar's thread on the Betfair forum (now 350 comments strong) a few layers got stung.
The Windies need to bat out another 20 overs with 7 wickets remaining so I'm looking good for 6/6 and my bank has grown on average >6% per bet, way ahead of plan. Infact after 6 bets my bank should be £119, it will be (assuming WI hold out) £142 where I scheduled to be after 12 bets, therefore I'm only 232 bets from smashing my £100k target...
I cant access Betfair at work so I rang to get a price on Nadal to win his QF in the French Open. This fella is unbeatable at Roland Garros and expecting a quote of 1.03/4, I helped myself to 1.07 for my whole bank. Nadal dropped 3 games and my bank grew by 6.6% (remember target is 3% per bet) to £127.42.
Returning home from work (I've had another crap day), my missus and her sister, fresh from a break in Spain, were cooking my tea but I managed to sneak a small lay of Desert Stag in a 4 runner novice hurdle at Sedgefield @ 16.5 - another £7.56 for the kitty but in hindsight this was a bad call and I'll be avoiding small fields in future as the outsider won at 40-1 and reading Choristar's thread on the Betfair forum (now 350 comments strong) a few layers got stung.
The Windies need to bat out another 20 overs with 7 wickets remaining so I'm looking good for 6/6 and my bank has grown on average >6% per bet, way ahead of plan. Infact after 6 bets my bank should be £119, it will be (assuming WI hold out) £142 where I scheduled to be after 12 bets, therefore I'm only 232 bets from smashing my £100k target...
Monday 2 June 2008
Dodged a few bullets this evening...
My girlfriend is spending a few days in Spain so I was looking forward to picking out a few lays at Windsor on AtTheRaces following a crap day at the office. Anyway, I thought North South Divide looked a stone cold lay in the 7.30; a maiden, unproven on softish ground, no course form in a competitive 14 runner handicap and unsupported in the market. I risked my entire bank @ 16 and watched nervously as he ran a close 2nd.
Then, heart still pumping, I again risked my entire bank @ 34 on Lipocco in the 8.00; returning from a 261 day absence, unproven on the ground and unsupported in the market. He broke well, led and was only headed in the shadows of the post by the favourite, thankfully.
Can you believe I chose 2 lays and they both finished 2nd at 16 & 34! I decided to leave the remaining races and update this blog instead but I'm asking myself a number of questions like should I be laying horses in handicaps as they're all theoretically supposed to have an equal chance and should I be laying horses returning from a lengthy break; who knows how much they may have improved in that time.
My bank is now £119.29 having successfully negotiated 3 of my 244 bets...just!
Then, heart still pumping, I again risked my entire bank @ 34 on Lipocco in the 8.00; returning from a 261 day absence, unproven on the ground and unsupported in the market. He broke well, led and was only headed in the shadows of the post by the favourite, thankfully.
Can you believe I chose 2 lays and they both finished 2nd at 16 & 34! I decided to leave the remaining races and update this blog instead but I'm asking myself a number of questions like should I be laying horses in handicaps as they're all theoretically supposed to have an equal chance and should I be laying horses returning from a lengthy break; who knows how much they may have improved in that time.
My bank is now £119.29 having successfully negotiated 3 of my 244 bets...just!
Sunday 1 June 2008
What's this all about?
Okay, for those of you that read Choristar_Is_Champ's thread entitled £100 becomes £137,920.12 on the Betfair forum or for anyone interested in betting related challenges this is the blog for you.
My plan is to turn a £100 bank into £100,000 by increasing the bank by 3% per bet. Increasing the bank by 3% x 244 times in a row turns a £100 bank into £101,743.03 (after Betfair commision). There are no rules - I'll make them up as I go along.
The purpose of this blog is to hopefully instill much needed patience and discipline, greatly lacking in my 20 years as a failed punter. In addition, for those of you interested in attempting this feat yourselves please feel free to use this forum to discuss potential bets/strategies.
So here goes, I could be just 244 bets from landing the 244 bet challenge...
Bet # 1 (Bank £100)
Lay to risk £100 on Trinidad & Tobago v England @ 11.5
My plan is to turn a £100 bank into £100,000 by increasing the bank by 3% per bet. Increasing the bank by 3% x 244 times in a row turns a £100 bank into £101,743.03 (after Betfair commision). There are no rules - I'll make them up as I go along.
The purpose of this blog is to hopefully instill much needed patience and discipline, greatly lacking in my 20 years as a failed punter. In addition, for those of you interested in attempting this feat yourselves please feel free to use this forum to discuss potential bets/strategies.
So here goes, I could be just 244 bets from landing the 244 bet challenge...
Bet # 1 (Bank £100)
Lay to risk £100 on Trinidad & Tobago v England @ 11.5
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